Norddeutsches Küsten- und Klimabüro
 

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Flensburg

Possible impact of future sea level rise on storm surges by 2100

Impact of MSL in RCP8.5 scenario If future greenhouse gas emission keeps high (like in RCP8.5):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) could occur about every 0.7 years at Flensburg.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 62 years at Flensburg. A 62-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.5 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 1.2 years at Flensburg in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.62 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
Impact of MSL in RCP2.6 scenario If future greenhouse gas emisson will be significantly reduced (like in RCP2.6):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) may occur about every 3.7 years at Flensburg.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 62 years at Flensburg. A 62-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.18 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 7.9 years at Flensburg in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.3 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.