How much could sea level increase until 2100?
To answer this question for Flensburg, we extrapolate the current sea level rise to 2100, assuming a linear and an accelerated future rise. This allows to estimate if and to what extent the actual sea level rise is consistent with the sea level projections of IPCC .
Please choose time period
- If the sea level at Flensburg continues to rise like in the last 50 years, it would increase about 20 cm by 2100 based on the linear extrapolation.
- Assuming a quadratic extrapolation, it could incease about 10 cm by 2100.
- According to IPCC , the global mean sea level (GMSL) in 2100 is projected to be 43 cm (29-59 cm) under RCP2.6 and 84 cm (61-110 cm) under RCP8.5.
- Compared to the projections of GMSL in 2100 [IPCC, 2019], the linear extrapolation of the last 50-year sea level rise of Flensburg is below the projected range of RCP2.6.
- The quadratic extrapolation of the last 50-year sea level rise of Flensburg is below the projected range of RCP2.6. Note: A high uncertainty range of the quadratic fit (large green area) indicates that it is currently not the best fit.
- According to the quadratic fit, there is a negative acceleration of sea level rise in the last 50 years.