Norddeutsches Küsten- und Klimabüro
 

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Flensburg

How much could sea level increase until 2100?

To answer this question for Flensburg, we extrapolate the current sea level rise to 2100, assuming a linear and an accelerated future rise. This allows to estimate if and to what extent the actual sea level rise is consistent with the sea level projections of IPCC [2019].

50 years
  • If the sea level at Flensburg continues to rise like in the last 50 years, it would increase about 20 cm by 2100 based on the linear extrapolation.
  • Assuming a quadratic extrapolation, it could incease about 10 cm by 2100.
  • According to IPCC [2019], the global mean sea level (GMSL) in 2100 is projected to be 43 cm (29-59 cm) under RCP2.6 and 84 cm (61-110 cm) under RCP8.5.
  • Compared to the projections of GMSL in 2100 [IPCC, 2019], the linear extrapolation of the last 50-year sea level rise of Flensburg is below the projected range of RCP2.6.
  • The quadratic extrapolation of the last 50-year sea level rise of Flensburg is below the projected range of RCP2.6.
  • Note: A high uncertainty range of the quadratic fit (large green area) indicates that it is currently not the best fit.